Atchison, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

366
FXUS63 KEAX 100827
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO
327 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms early this morning. Main hazards are
  damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and flooding.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight
  into Monday morning. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding will
  be possible once again.

- Rain chances continue through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A mature MCS with a well-defined bowing segment is marching
eastward through northeast Kansas, riding along a stationary
front oriented SW to NE from central Kansas towards the MN River
Valley. The favorability of the environment for this complex to
sustain through northwest Missouri in the short term (1-3
hours) seems to be diminishing, though with 3000-4000 J/kg of
MUCAPE, PW values in excess of 2", and 25-35 kts of bulk shear
there is still a chance for some isolated damaging wind gusts up
to 50-65 mph if updrafts can get deeply rooted. The more
notable concern for this morning MCS is heavy rainfall and
flooding, with efficient rainfall rates 1-3" being observed with
the leading line of this segment.

PoPs decrease through the morning as the MCS marches east and
coverage begins decreasing, before another round of rainfall is
expected with another convective complex this evening and
overnight into Monday morning. The front will slowly nudge
further and further south, acting as a focal point for
additional rainfall in another thermodynamically rich
environment.

However, certainty and predictability in how this evening and
overnight round plays out is quite low. There are several
mesoscale factors that could make or break how this evening
unfolds, so the next 12 hours will determine when/if and where
the next system develops, and how intense it can get. Model
guidance is all over the place, but overall consensus from the
more reliable CAMs push the front and theta-e gradient further
south. This moves the best chances for most robust convective
development further south, especially south of I-70. For this
reason, the Flood Watch has been expanded in area to include the
remainder of the forecast area. HREF LPMMs suggest another
localized 2-4" could be possible in spots overnight, leading to
additional flooding concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Over the next few hours, VFR conditions are expected to continue
with southerly flow between 5-10 kt expected across area
forecast sites. We`re currently watching a line of gusty showers
and thunderstorms moving across central KS and southern NE which
should approach area terminals between 08-10Z. While this line
of storms should be weakening as it approaches the area, there
is fairly high confidence that outflow ahead of these storms
will lead to a west-northwest wind shift around 09-10Z. 20-30 kt
gusts are possible within this surge. Behind the outflow,
SHRA/TSRA is expected, though confidence is lower in how much
ceilings and visibilities will fall within this weakening line
of storms. SHRA will linger through mid-morning, with clearing
expected for the second half of the day. VFR conditions are
expected to return quickly after any heavy rain ends, with
south-southwesterly winds returning for Sunday afternoon. Winds
are expected to back to the east-northeast Sunday evening as a
front slides across the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Camden/SGF
AVIATION...Graham/LMK